Fantasy Insider: Best of the rest, others to avoid at Pebble Beach (PGATOUR.com)
February 9, 2010
This week, daily leagues like Yahoo! are dealt a hanging curve ball, literally and figuratively, as the Shore Course at Monterey Peninsula Country Club replaces Poppy Hills. On one hand, it will play as a par 70 at 6,875 yards; Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill will remain par 72s. On the other, MPCC is the first new track on the PGA TOUR since Liberty National hosted The Barclays in the PGA TOUR Playoffs for the FedExCup. As if there aren't enough unknowns in the fantasy world.
In an article in the San Jose Mercury News this week, two-time AT&T winner, Davis Love III, and nearby Modesto native, Matt Bettencourt shared some common ground on the renovated Shore Course.
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"If there's no wind, I think someone could put up a 63 or 64," said Bettencourt, a two-time Northern California Golf Association Player of the Year. "If it's windy, I think breaking par would be a good score."
"It's a great change," Love said. "It may not be the end all, but I think it'll play harder than Poppy Hills."
Spyglass was the 13th-most difficult track used in all of 2009. Pebble ranked 21st-hardest. Both played over par. Poppy averaged a hair under par but it was also a par 72. Meanwhile, as of my deadline, it still wasn't known if lift, clean and place would be employed, a realistic option with sketchy weather anticipated mid-tournament. If ball-in-hand is allowed, it will be in effect for the first three rounds. Therefore, if you're going to lean on opinion from Bettencourt and DL3, as I will be tempted, don't hold back. Comes out of your shoes and knock it out of the park.
"I think [MPCC] is going to be one of the top one to three courses we play on tour this year," Bettencourt concluded.
Once they become available, I will post the course rotations on my Twitter page.
MORE: | | | | TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Luke Donald and Phil Mickelson.
Jason Day—Great spot for the newlywed to shake off some rust. He has two top 15s in as many starts, but you might want to keep him off Spyglass where he carded a 75 last year. He's 8-under par in 54 holes at Pebble.
Vijay Singh—The days of the automatic start here for the big guy are gone. Moreover, he's struggling finding greens in 2010 and executing worse once he's there. This is quickly shaping up to be a long year, especially since he's committed to the European Tour as well.
Steve Marino—First return since missing the cut here in rookie year of 2007. Comes off a T5 at Riviera where he hadn't finished inside the top 45 in two previous appearances. If you want to save starts on Mickelson, get Marino in there now. ________________________________________________________________________________________ TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Dustin Johnson and Alex Prugh.
Sergio Garcia—Returns for the first time since 2001 for the sole purpose of scouting the U.S. Open host course. Concerns over his wrist injury were quelled with a T13 at Abu Dhabi and a T24 in Qatar. Because he's warm, Garcia is an excellent option to start Thursday on your bench.
Adam Scott—First appearance here. We're going to learn if his matching 73s and missed cut at Riviera signaled a relapse or an inadvertent scare tactic. He hit just 20 greens in regulation and still needed 58 putts. Other than breaking the seal on a new season, there was nothing positive to be gleaned from that effort.
Ryo Ishikawa—Leaked oil on the back half of the Northern Trust, giving back 10 shots in the last two rounds. He finished first for the week in total length of putts made (423'), but he needed to as he was 78th in proximity to the hole on approach shots and 79th in total driving. Since putters can get colder faster than a late afternoon on the Monterey Coast, the Bashful Prince simply needs to hit more fairways and greens.
Kevin Na—No top 40s in three career starts here but his previous best finish in six appearances at the NTO was a T25 before last week's T10. It was his second top 10 of 2010. 10-4?
Picks for other formats ONE-AND-DONE: Retief Goosen. Slotted him No. 1 in my Power Rankings. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $369,015.00) DUFFER: Brad Adamonis. Last start on minor medical extension. (Rob's 2010 earnings: $91,000.00) Rob's YAHOO! Stats: 815 points (20,938th)
J.B. Holmes—His new relationship with short-game guru, Dave Stockton, is already paying off. En route to a T3 at the NTO, Holmes broke 70 in all four rounds at Riviera, a feat he hadn't accomplished since his breakthrough victory at the 2006 FBR Open.
Sean O'Hair—First start since acknowledging that he played the second half of 2009 with a stress fracture in his left forearm. It's hardly mattered in terms of results since the Playoffs but the new knowledge might affect his swing. Keep an eye on him but don't start him yet.
Marc Leishman—Has snagged three top 20s already by avoiding the big number. He's played 130 of his last 144 holes par or better (90.27%) and has made 150 of 151 putts inside five feet this season.
Scott McCarron—Just in case you've been under a rock or on an island for a month, the headline-maker has missed the cut in all four of his starts this year. Also, he hasn't broken par in his last six rounds here and hasn't cashed at the AT&T in six years.
Kevin Sutherland—The NoCal veteran had never started a season with three straight top 20s … until 2010. Although he's missed the cut in his last two starts at the AT&T, he was the runner-up in 2007 and has five other top 25s.
Brian Gay—Has scored par or better in 13 consecutive rounds – an active TOUR high – but that probably comes to an end this week. He's 0-for-3 here and hasn't entered since 2001.
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TOP PICKS: See Power Rankings for Matt Kuchar, Davis Love III, Brandt Snedeker and Mike Weir.
Tim Clark—The TOUR's No. 1 putter has four top 25s in six starts here, which stacks up well in this group. Can't wait to see if he goes for it on (i.e. can reach) 18 on Sunday if he's in the hunt.
Ricky Barnes—On a crazy climb right now. His turnaround on the greens – where else – has led to the steady improvement of finishes, culminating with the ninth at the NTO.
John Mallinger—He's 0-for-3 to start the year and can't make a thing with his putter. I'm advising you to ignore his two third-place finishes (2007-08) and T33 in 2009 at this event.
Notah Begay III—Super fade. First start since July. Had surgery on his right knee on September 9.
Rob Bolton is PGATOUR.COM's new fantasy columnist. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the PGA TOUR. To contact Rob, please e-mail him at FantasyInsider@charter.net.
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